Using historical trends and the past performances for 20 of the top Kentucky Derby contenders, we have weighted many factors to develop the following ranked list. Each horse was given points for his conformation to a Derby winner's profile, and points were subtracted for negative aspects. Of course this does not guarantee that the horse with the most points will win, but it does give you a good idea who to eliminate from the winning position. It follows that if a horse doesn't fit the winner's profile, he may still finish in the money, much like how handicappers might bet anti-bias horses on the bottom of exotics. We also recommend checking workout patterns in the final week since these are a good indicator of who is ready. Preferably you're looking for horses that have at least two workouts over the Churchill Downs surface and at least one bullet work.
Although there are a few standouts going into this year's Kentucky Derby, many of the contenders seem to be quite evenly matched.. If, as often happens, some of the short-priced horses fail to hit the board, it could lead to some big payoffs like in 2005 when Giacomo pulled off a huge upset at 50-1.
For more information on the trends and statistics used in this analysis, check out my article on Handicapping the Derby, the book Betting the Kentucky Derby by Dean Keppler, and Triple Crown Handicapper by Jim Mazur. There are also a couple of older articles you may find useful, one on angles from American Turf Monthly and a 10-step program from Kentucky Connect. On Thursday night before the Derby, Daily Racing Form will have their selections and analysis online. This is the most over-analyzed race on the planet, so there are lots of trends and angles you can use. Free past performances for the Derby are available here from Daily Racing Form.
Pyro tops the list this year, as he scored points on most of the angles. As a dual qualifier, one of only three expected to run this year, he had to have raced as a juvenile, and has made 7 career starts, 3 this year, which is within the optimal range. He satisfied the Beyer requirement with his 105 effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and his running style, rallying from off the pace, is favored in the Derby. He also has the requisite stakes win at 3 (the Louisiana Derby and the Risen Star) and has raced at 1 1/8 miles. The only knock against him is that he raced poorly in his final prep, 10th in the Blue Grass as the favorite, but he started poorly and it was his first and only start on Polytrack. This poor final prep could inflate the odds for the Steve Asmussen trainee, who has had the advantage of working out with his Horse of the Year stablemate Curlin.
The next 2 horses scored an equal number of points and are thus presented in alphabetical order.
Bob Black Jack set a world record at 6 furlongs in the Sunshine Millions Dash earning him a 109 Beyer, but hasn't yet won going a route. Strictly by the numbers, this California-bred does qualify under most of the factors we use. He raced at 2, has made at least 6 career starts including 3 this year, and by exiting the Santa Anita Derby, a sharp prep finishing second by just 1/2 a length, he is within the optimum layoff between final prep and the main event. His only knocks are that he likes to set the pace in a race so heavily favored towards closers, and he is not a dual qualifier.
Z Fortune comes to Louisville off a second place finish by just 3/4 length in the Arkansas Derby, which was his 6th career start and his 4th as a 3-year-old. This Steve Asmussen trainee won his debut as a juvenile in a restricted race for New York-breds, and went on to win the LeComte at the Fair Grounds in January, but has not won since. His Oaklawn Park effort earned him a 102 Beyer, which did not make par but he does earn a point for hitting triple digits, at the important 9 furlong distance required. As well, he is not a dual qualifier.
Tale of Ekati has several knocks which puts him down to 4th in the rankings here. He has only made two starts this year and has never broke the 100-Beyer barrier. However, this Barclay Tagg trainee is a dual qualifier, raced at 2 including winning the Futurity at Belmont, and he had a sharp final prep by winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct at the required 1 1/8 mile distance. He also rallies from off the pace, as we saw him do in the Wood to defeat early favorite War Pass, which is typically the Derby winning style.
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