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Summer Bird finished third in the Arkansas Derby for his final prep, earning him a top Beyer of just 99. That was only his 3rd lifetime start, all of which were this year, so he lacks the juvenile foundation required as well as a stakes win. He does have the correct running style, coming "from the clouds" in all three of his starts.
Win Willy was the surprise winner of the Rebel, earning a 102 Beyer, but regressed to a 4th place finish in the Arkansas Derby, but since he finished less than 4 lengths back, this qualifies as a sharp prep. On the downside, he is one of two horses expected to run who do not qualify on dosage, having an index of 5.00, only has 5 lifetime starts, has not run a 105 Beyer, and did not race in stakes company as a juvenile.
The next 2 horses scored an equal number of points and are thus presented in alphabetical order.
Flying Private has ten starts coming in, including a 5th place finish in the Arkansas Derby as his final prep. Since he finished 6 lengths back, this does not qualify as a sharp prep race. He does not have a stakes win, having finished second in both the Mountain Valley and the Lane's End, and did not run in a stakes race last year. His top Beyer of 94 at Turfway is too slow for the Derby. He is capable of rallying from off the pace, has enough prep races this year, and will run off a 3 week layoff.
Musket Man won the Illinois Derby earning his top Beyer of 98 in his 6th lifetime start and 4th this year. However, neither of his 2 starts as a juvenile were in stakes company, he generally stalks the pace rather than rallies, and he earns the knock for prepping at Tampa Bay, where he finished third in the Sam F. Davis followed by a win in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Mine That Bird was the champion juvenile colt in Canada last year, but his Dosage index of 5.40 prevented him from earning Dual Qualifier status. He scored the least number of points in this year's analysis. Along with the Beyer knock, he lacks a stakes win this year, does not have enough prep races (2 races at Sunland Park), is coming off a 5 week layoff, has a top Beyer of just 81, the slowest by far in the field, and he runs close to the pace. His few positives include stakes wins last year (all three at Woodbine), 8 lifetime starts, and a sharp prep race, having finished 3 1/4 lengths back in the Sunland Derby.
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