Sinister Minister was the runaway winner of the Blue Grass Stakes with a 116 Beyer which towers over the competition here. This is reminiscent of War Emblem, but it is highly unlikely this Derby field will allow him an uncontested lead, and according to his past performances he has to have the lead or he won't run at all. He always races on the front end which is a huge negative, and he is short on experience with just 5 career starts. Derby winners generally go into the big race with at least 6 career starts. Despite his short career he does have a race at 2 which is a positive, but so does every other horse ranked above him. He scores points in the workout department with his bullet works.
The next 6 horses scored an equal number of points by our analysis and are presented in alphabetical order.
A.P. Warrior actually scored on all of our positive points, including sharp final prep, 3rd to Brother Derek in the Santa Anita Derby. However, he did not score maximum points in the running style category, as he generally stalks the pace. Although not as unfavorable as a front-runner, this is not the closing run of a typical Derby winner. His top Beyer of 101 in the San Felipe does not make the par, but does earn partial points. He scored one major negative under the "duck angle", having left Southern California to race in the El Camino Real Derby at Bay Meadows, where he finished fourth against much weaker competition.
Jazil was the runner-up in the Wood Memorial, a sharp final prep, and he closed from 20 lengths back in that event, which is as deep a closer as we have found in this field. With another Giacomo-style finish expected this year, he may have a chance in Louisville. However, he has two major knocks to overcome. He has not won a stakes race in his career, and he has never run a 100 Beyer, his best effort being a 97 in the Wood. As well, at time of writing he has had just one slow workout since the Wood.
Keyed Entry was third in the Wood behind Bob and John and Jazil, and his 105 Beyer in the Gotham meets par, earning him maximum points in that category. However like Jazil, he also has two major knocks. He likes to race close to the pace, again not favorable at the Derby, and with just five career starts he lacks the experience needed to prevail against 19 other horses in front of 150,000 fans. He has not worked a bullet since March but is already at Churchill Downs, which might be an advantage over the many horses expected to ship in late.
Steppenwolfer was almost 3 lengths behind Lawyer Ron when he finished second in the Arkansas Derby, which earns him points for a sharp final prep. He has 8 career starts which gives him more experience than many in this field, however, he has never run faster than a 94 Beyer (in the Arkansas Derby and the Southwest Stakes), and he has no stakes wins at 3. He does close from well off the pace, so if his Oaklawn nemesis Lawyer Ron tires late he might be there to pick up the pieces after 3 straight losses.
Storm Treasure was a distant (almost 13) lengths back of Sinister Minister when finishing second in the Blue Grass Stakes, which earns him a "sharp" prep, but his 95 Beyer in that effort, his career best, is not fast enough to win the Derby. He lacks a stakes win this year, and qualifies as a "duck", finishing sixth in the Tampa Bay Derby. He generally rallies from off the pace, which technically earns him running style points, although a "rally" from 19 lengths back to 13 lengths back probably won't win any Derby.
Sunriver is the first horse in our analysis to come out of the Florida Derby, where he finished third. This earns him a sharp prep, but also is a huge negative in that he will be entering the Derby off of a layoff longer than 28 days. He generally races close to the pace, again not favorable here, and suffers from another major knock, lacking a stakes win at 3. As well, his 97 Beyer at Gulfstream is his career top, not fast enough to win the Derby. On the positive side, he does have a bullet workout at Churchill Downs on April 23, giving him an advantage over late shippers. He also lacks the graded earnings to get in the race and will have to hope for a two horses above him to drop out for him to get in the race.
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