For more information on the trends and statistics used in this analysis, check out the book Triple Crown Handicapper 2004 by Jim Mazur.
We also recommend checking workout patterns in the final week since these are a good indicator of who is ready. Preferably you're looking for horses that came out of the Derby and only had one (no more, no less) workout between starts, preferably at Pimlico.
The Cliff's Edge - The Derby 5th place finisher scored the most points in our analysis for that race, but threw both front shoes at Churchill Downs and didn't run as expected. Once again he ranks highest but can he keep his shoes on and win this time? He likes to rally from off the pace and has the versatility to stay within 10 lengths of the lead after the half, both positive angles for the Preakness. His 4 starts at three and 5 at two are both acceptable, along with his stakes win at two and graded win at three. His 111 Beyer when he won the Blue Grass Stakes satisfies the Preakness par of 106. Finally, he has a recorded workout between the Derby and Preakness, a very positive angle. In fact he is the only horse that scored points on every angle we used.
Smarty Jones - The Kentucky Derby winner will undoubtedly go off as the favorite again at Pimlico. This is a strong angle given than the favorite in the Preakness wins almost 40% of the time, higher than the overall average of about 30% for all other races, and they finish in the top 3 over 80% of the time. His stalking style should suit him well, especially if once again the track comes up wet. He has five starts as a three-year-old, which is within the ideal range for Preakness winners, but he only has 2 starts as a juvenile. Only 2000 winner Red Bullet raced less than 3 times in his juvenile season. Finally, the Beyer par for the Preakness is 106; Smarty Jones' 107 in the Derby satisfies this requirement. With all these angles on his side, Smarty Jones looks primed to go on to Belmont Park with a Triple Crown on the line. His two knocks include lacking a stakes win at two and his trainer's insistence not to give him a timed workout before the Preakness, instead merely galloping him at Philadelphia.
Imperialism - He closed from 17th early to finish third at Churchill and he is our third choice by this analysis. He has the preferred rallying style but most importantly, is never more than 10 lengths back after half a mile. He has enough starts at three including a graded stakes (the San Vicente), and has had a workout during the 2 week layoff, but he was overraced at two (which doesn't seen to have bothered him), has not run to the Beyer par, and did not win a stakes at two despite his eleven starts.
Borrego - He finished a disappointing 10th in the Derby as a 14-1 longshot, but just being in the Derby makes him a Preakness contender. His rallying style is the preferred one for the Preakness, and looking at his past races, with the exception of the Louisiana Derby he was never more than 10 lengths back after half a mile, which is where a closer has to be positioned to win this event. He has run 4 times at three and 4 times at two, both within the accepted range, and has had a workout during the layoff. Unfortunately, he has yet to run to the Preakness par of 106, his top Beyer having been his 105 in the Arkansas Derby when beaten by Smarty Jones, and has no graded wins at three nor a stakes win at two.
Lion Heart - The Derby runner-up will again set the pace as he has done in all but his maiden start. Unfortunately, despite popular "wisdom" as explained above, only 17% of Preakness winners go wire to wire, the last one being War Emblem in 2002 but you have to go back to 1996 and Louis Quatorze for the next to last one. His three 3-year-old starts and three juvenile starts are both within the optimal range, plus he has the required stakes win at two. He does satisfy the Beyer par, having run a 110 in the Blue Grass, but he regressed to a 103 in the Derby. Along with his running style, he also lacks a graded stakes win at three and has not worked since before the Derby.
