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Analyzing the Preakness Stakes Contenders for 2010

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Derby Trial winner Hurricane Ike

Derby Trial winner Hurricane Ike is expected to go to the Preakness next.

© Vanessa Ng

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The next 2 horses scored equal points and are listed alphabetically:

Aikenite comes to Pimlico off a third place finish in the Derby Trial, earning him a sharp prep 3 weeks out. He lacks Professional points, stalks the pace, and has 4 starts this year. However he skipped the Derby, lacks a stakes win in his career, and has a best Beyer of just 96.

Caracortado did not draw into the Derby field having finished 4th beaten 7 1/4 lengths in the Santa Anita Derby. So he is coming to the Preakness off a 6 week layoff, with a poor prep effort, and a best Beyer of 98. On the positive side he does have stakes wins at 2 (California Breeders' Championship) and 3 (Robert B. Lewis), lacks Professional points, stalks the pace, and has made 3 starts this year.

Pleasant Prince finished a distant third in the Derby Trial last out which qualifies as a sharp prep 3 weeks out. He comes from off the pace and has made 6 starts this year, the upper limit for this requirement. Among his knocks, he skipped the Derby, lacks a stakes win in his career, has a best Beyer of 99 earned in the Florida Derby, and he has 1 point in the Professional wing of his Dosage profile.

The last 4 horses scored equal points and are listed alphabetically:

First Dude is one of several newcomers to the Triple Crown wars, off a third place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes. This was a sharp prep and his 4th start this year. However, he skipped the Derby, lacks a stakes win in his career, is coming off a 5 week layoff, has a best Beyer of 90 earned in an allowance race, and races close to the pace.

Northern Giant has not raced since finishing last in the Arkansas Derby 5 weeks ago. This is clearly not a sharp prep off too long a layoff. He skipped the Derby, lacks any stakes wins, and his best Beyer is a 92 when he broke his maiden in February. The only positives are his running style (stalks the pace), his 5 starts this year, and his lack of Professional points.

Schoolyard Dreams finished fourth in the Wood Memorial last out, a 6 week layoff off a poor prep. He has not won a stakes race in his career, has a best Beyer of 94, and skipped the Derby. Like Northern Giant his only positives are dosage profile, 4 starts this year, and an ability to stalk the pace.

Yawanna Twist has not raced since finishing second in the Illinois Derby. This qualifies as a sharp prep, he stalks the pace, and he has made 3 starts this year. Among his many negatives, he skipped the Kentucky Derby, he has 1 Professional point, he is coming off a 6 week layoff, lacks any stakes wins, and has never run a triple digit Beyer.

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