May 18, 2005
As usual, the grueling trip around Churchill Downs has weeded out many of the pretenders, leaving a more compact and contentious field for the Preakness at Pimlico. We will attempt to handicap the probable Preakness field using angles that have pointed at the winner in past years. It is well-known that to win the Preakness, you have to have raced in the Derby. If the Kentucky Derby is not in the horse's past performances he is an immediate toss for the win. He may finish second like Magic Weisner in 2002, but rarely wins. Although Pimlico is always called a speed-favoring oval, about half of Preakness winners came from off the pace, while 1/3 of winners stalk. Horses more than 10 lengths off the pace after half a mile generally don't win the Black Eyed Susans and closers need to be in contention at the top of the stretch.
For more information on the trends and statistics used in this analysis, check out the book Triple Crown Handicapper 2005 by Jim Mazur and Impact Values Lead to Derby, Preakness & Belmont Winners & Longshots by Stanley Caris.
We also recommend checking workout patterns in the final week since these are a good indicator of who is ready. Preferably you're looking for horses that came out of the Derby and only had one (no more, no less) workout between starts, preferably at Pimlico. Not having a work between the Derby and the Preakness is usually a negative, although Smarty Jones won last year with frequent gallops instead of a work.
Afleet Alex scored points on every angle in this analysis, and is the top pick on points. He stalks or rallies from off the pace, the preferred running style for a Preakness winner, and is always within 10 lengths of the leader at the 1/2 mile marker. He made his last start in the Derby, a sharp third place finish beaten just a length. He has a stakes win at three (the Arkansas Derby), and scored a 108 Beyer in that start which satisfies our requirement of a 103 Beyer in the last 2 starts. Finally, he has no points in the Professional wing of his Dosage profile.
The following four horses scored equal points and are tied for second in this analysis:
Closing Argument, by finishing second in the Derby, scores on three factors already. He generally stalks the pace before making a winning move, has a stakes win at three (Holy Bull Stakes), and can stay within 10 lengths of the lead at the half. The only factor he did not qualify on was our Beyer par requirement, having run a 99 Derby and an 88 Blue Grass.
Giacomo, winner of the Kentucky Derby, scored on the same factors as Closing Argument, although he rallies from off the pace rather than stalks, either of which is preferred at Pimlico. Like Closing Argument, he failed on the Beyer par with his 100 Derby and 95 Santa Anita Derby. He may be worth a play if he goes off at long odds again, as longshot Derby winners are often underbet in Baltimore.
Greeley's Galaxy's only knock is that he is a front-runner. He is usually within a length of the leader with the exception of the Derby where his sluggish start left him far behind right away. Unlike the top two Derby finishers above, he did satisfy the Beyer par with his 106 in the Illinois Derby. He bounced back to an 88 in the Derby, so if he can run back to the Hawthorne number he could be wearing the Black-Eyed Susans.
High Fly finished a disappointing tenth in the Derby but scored on the same factors as Closing Argument, with a stalking style beneficial here. He barely missed the Beyer par, with his 102 in the Florida Derby, bouncing back to an 89 in the Kentucky Derby. If he can run back to that 102 on Saturday he might be able to take home a check this time.
The following four horses scored equal points and are tied for sixth in this analysis:
High Limit, like Greeley's Galaxy, is a front-runner (a knock) who got bumped at the start of the Derby taking him out of his game right away. He does have a stakes win at three (Louisiana Derby), but he was nowhere close to our Beyer par, with his 93 Blue Grass followed by a horrible 35 finishing dead last in the Kentucky Derby. The long break before the Derby may have hurt him at Churchill, so he should be sharper this time, second start off a layoff.
Malibu Moonshine earns a knock for not starting in the Derby, as the Preakness winner usually comes out of Louisville (in recent years only Red Bullet in 2000 bucked this trend). He also failed to satisfy the Beyer requirement. In fact he has never run a figure higher than the 85 he attained when he won the Private Terms two starts back. This local hope will have to run the race of his life for trainer King Leatherbury to run with this group.
