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2010 Belmont Contenders Analysis

By

Preakness runner-up First Dude

Preakness runner-up First Dude should also be one of the favorites in the Belmont Stakes

© Cindy Pierson Dulay

Continued from page 1.

The next 3 horses scored equal points and are listed alphabetically:

Drosselmeyer was an early "wise guy" horse for the Kentucky Derby but unfortunately skipped both the Derby and the Preakness, a clear negative in the Belmont. He has never run a 100+ Beyer, his last start was not a career best effort, he ran 4 times as a juvenile, and he has 3 points (2 solid 1 professional) on the right side. He is coming off a sharp prep (2nd in the Dwyer), which also counts as a sharp race at Belmont Park, he has 4 starts this year, and he uses a stalking runstyle.

Game On Dude is another newcomer to the Triple Crown wars, coming to Belmont off a win in the Lone Star Derby last out. He was unraced as a juvenile, has never raced at Belmont Park, has a career best Beyer of 95, and raced close to the pace. On the positive side he is coming off a sharp prep where he earned his career best figure, has started 5 times this year, and has no right side points in his dosage profile.

Make Music for Me finished fourth beaten 4 3/4 lengths in the Kentucky Derby last out. This earns him points for starting in a Triple Crown race, in his 3rd start this year. He earned a career best Beyer of 97 in the Derby, and he usually stalks the pace. On the negative side he raced 5 times as a juvenile, did not have a sharp prep, has never raced at Belmont Park, has 2 points in the Solid wing of his dosage profile, and has never run a 100+ Beyer.

The next 3 horses scored equal points and are listed alphabetically:

Spangled Star was 3rd in the Withers at Aqueduct in his last start, which qualifies as a sharp prep and a career best Beyer (87) in his 3rd start this year. However he raced 5 times as a juvenile, has no Belmont Park starts, races close to the pace, has not run a 100+ Beyer, skipped both the Derby and the Preakness, and has 2 right-side points (one each in the Solid and Professional) in his dosage profile.

Stately Victor was 8th in the Kentucky Derby beaten almost 9 lengths last out. This was not a sharp prep, was not a career best Beyer, and he has never run a triple digit figure. As well he has never run at Belmont Park, has too many starts (4) as a juvenile, and he rallies from too far off the pace. On the positive side he lacks right side dosage profile points, has made 5 starts this year, and does have a Triple Crown start.

Stay Put won an optional claiming allowance race at Churchill Downs last out, the first race on the Kentucky Derby undercard. This qualifies as a sharp prep in his 4th start this year, after starting 3 times last year. However, his negatives include skipping both Derby and Preakness, his late-closing runstyle, not improving his best Beyer in his last start, not running a 100+ figure lifetime, lacking any starts at Belmont, and his 4 points (2 solid 2 professional) in his dosage profile.

Dave in Dixie skipped both the Derby and the Preakness, and is coming off a poor prep, 5th in the Illinois Derby beaten 16 lengths. He has never raced at Belmont Park, did not earn a best Beyer in his last start, has never run a 100+ Beyer, rallies from off the pace, and has 1 point in the Professional wing of his dosage profile. Along with the sub-4.00 dosage index requirement that all 11 horses satisfied, he only qualified on number of starts, 2 last year and 3 this year.

Interactif, a late addition to the field by trainer Todd Pletcher, ranked dead last in this analysis, failing on all but 1 of our qualifiers, his 3 starts so far this year. He comes to the Belmont off a distant fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes which was not a sharp prep, not a career best Beyer, and not a Triple Crown race, he lacks any races at Belmont Park, and he usually races close to the pace. As well, he has 4 points (2 solid 2 professional) on the right side of his dosage profile, has never run a 100+ Beyer, and was overraced as a juvenile with 5 starts.

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