The Belmont Stakes is the oldest of the Triple Crown races, and at 1 1/2 miles on the dirt, is a dinosaur with so few main track events carded at twelve furlongs these days. With the short five week span for three gruelling races under scale weight of 126 pounds over three very different tracks and three different distances, it takes a very special horse sweep the series. So much so that only eleven horses have completed the task, and the last one, Affirmed, was back in 1978. When Rachel Alexandra defeated Derby winner Mine That Bird in the Preakness, that ended the possibility of a Triple Crown winner in 2009, and since she scratched out of the Belmont we will not have a rematch.
Thanks to injuries, poor performance in preps, or just plain lack of ability at the distance, the Belmont often gets a short field of horses. While traffic trouble, a major issue in the Derby, shouldn't be an issue here, once again 3-year-olds are being asked to do something they've never done and conditioning will be key. Major factors which separate the likely winners of the Belmont are weighed out in this analysis, as we did for the Derby and Preakness fields.
Like the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, we have compiled some of the more profitable angles used to select a Belmont Stakes winner in recent years, and applied them to the possible entrants. Some novice horseplayers mistakenly believe a long race immediately favors closers when in fact the Belmont favors stalkers. As well, the 4.00 Dosage Index angle is stronger in the Belmont than in the Derby where it's mostly used, but there's an additional dosage angle which is quite counterintuitive indeed. The Belmont favors horses who do NOT have points in the Solid or Professional wings of their dosage profiles, where you'd expect to see indicators of stamina for the grueling 12 furlong trip.
Below are the contenders we analyzed in order of preference. The contenders selected are the ones who are confirmed or likely to enter as of today. Always remember that this profile is for the winning position only and any horse can still finish in the money. You can view the past performances of these horses free at DRF.
Mine That Bird leads the field in points as he did in the Preakness. His runner-up finish at Pimlico earned him a 106 Beyer, his career best, and qualifies as a sharp prep and a stakes win this year to go with his Kentucky Derby victory. Although during the Triple Crown he has rallied from off the pace, during his championship juvenile season in Canada he won using a stalking trip so we awarded him the point for running style, as stalking the pace 1-5 lengths behind is preferable in the Belmont over front-runners or closers. His only negatives included: too many starts as a juvenile, has no starts at Belmont Park, and dosage index is above 4.
The next 2 horses scored equal points and are listed alphabetically:
Charitable Man exits a 3 3/4 length win in the Peter Pan for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, earning him a sharp prep race at Belmont Park. His running style is a mid-pack stalk which is preferred, and his dosage is less than 4. On the negative side, he skipped the Preakness, only has 2 starts this year, he has not run a triple digit Beyer, and he has points to the right of the dosage profile.
Miner's Escape won the Federico Tesio by 4 1/2 lengths but trainer Nick Zito opted to skip the Preakness and rest for the Belmont, a negative. He runs close to the pace, does not have a start at Belmont Park, and has not run a triple digit Beyer. He does have enough starts at 2 and 3, has a dosage under 4 and lacks points on the right side of the profile.
The next 3 horses scored equal points and are listed alphabetically:
Dunkirk finished 11th in the Kentucky Derby in his last start, which was his fourth lifetime for trainer Todd Pletcher. He earned points for running style as he stalked the pace in his two wins, he has 4 starts as a 3-year-old, has topped the Beyer par of 106 with his 108 effort in the Florida Derby, and his dosage index is under 4. However he did not race as a 2-year-old, skipped the Preakness, did not have a sharp prep nor have any starts at Belmont Park, and he has points on the right side of his dosage profile.
On to page 2 for the rest of the horses
