The Belmont Stakes is the oldest of the Triple Crown races, and at 1 1/2 miles on the dirt, is a dinosaur with so few main track events carded at twelve furlongs these days. With the short five week span for three gruelling races under scale weight of 126 pounds over three very different tracks and three different distances, it takes a very special horse sweep the series. So much so that only eleven horses have completed the task, and the last one, Affirmed, was back in 1978.
Thanks to injuries, excuses, and the usual ducking by trainers, the Belmont often gets a short field of horses and this year is no exception, with only seven making the gate for the 1 1/2 mile trip around Belmont Park. Although traffic trouble, a major issue in the Derby, won't be an issue here, a similar consideration is, once again 3-year-olds are being asked to do something they've never done. Conditioning will be key. Key factors which separate the likely winners of the Belmont are weighed out in this analysis, as we did for the Derby and Preakness fields.
As we did for the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, we have compiled some of the more profitable angles used to select a Belmont Stakes winner in recent years, and applied them to the possible entrants. For example. Belmont winners come off layoffs of no longer than three weeks with the allowed exception of horses coming straight from the Derby, have run a Beyer of 106 or better, and stalk the pace. Some novice horseplayers mistakenly believe a long race immediately favors closers when in fact the Belmont favors stalkers. However, it is worth noting that last year's winner Jazil bucked this trend. As well, the 4.00 Dosage Index angle is stronger in the Belmont than in the Derby where it's mostly used, but there's an additional dosage angle which is quite counterintuitive indeed. The Belmont favors horses who do NOT have points in the Solid or Professional wings of their dosage profiles, where you'd expect to see indicators of stamina for the grueling twelve furlong trip around "Big Sandy". With a short field, traffic shouldn't be a problem and the pace scenario looks to be honest with an even distribution of pace-setters, stalkers, and closers.
Below are the contenders we analyzed in order of preference. The contenders selected are the ones who are confirmed or likely to enter as of today. Always remember that this profile is for the winning position only and any horse can still finish in the money. You can view the past performances of these horses free at DRF.
Hard Spun led all contenders with the fewest knocks. Although he hasn't won since the Lane's End Stakes at Turfway, he was 2nd in the Kentucky Derby and 3rd in the Preakness, very sharp efforts indeed. His only two knocks are his front-running style and his lack of a sharp race at Belmont Park. In fact only 2 horses entered have raced at "Big Sandy", although Hard Spun has been stabled there since the Preakness including a workout on June 3.
The following two horses scored equal points and are listed alphabetically.
Curlin, winner of the Preakness, looks to be on a roll, with just one career defeat (in the Kentucky Derby) and the fastest Beyers of anybody in the field, with his 111 Preakness effort. The most glaring knock for him is his total lack of 2-year-old racing, having started his racing career in February of this year. As well, he likes to rally from well off the pace, which, although is the favored style in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, is not in the Belmont.
C P West comes into the Belmont off a 4th place effort in the Preakness, which is a knock given that it was not a sharp prep, does qualify under the layoff angle. He lacks a stakes win this year, and has not run to the Beyer par of 106 for this race. On the upside he did race at 2, stalks the pace, and is the only horse in the field to have a sharp race at Belmont Park, his close 2nd in the Futurity last year.
The following two horses scored equal points and are listed alphabetically.
Rags to Riches is the lone filly in the race, coming into the Belmont off of wins in the Kentucky Oaks and the Santa Anita Oaks. With this in mind, she earns a major knock in the layoff category, coming into the race off 5 weeks. The Derby is the only exception allowed for this factor. She also is short on 2-year-old starts with just one in June before a lengthy layoff, and has not run to the Beyer par.
Slew's Tizzy comes into this race off a 2-race win streak including the Lone Star Derby and the Lexington. The Lone Star is 4 weeks back, which earns him a knock. He has never run a triple digit Beyer, only raced twice as a juvenile (we require 3 starts), and his lone Belmont start, his career debut, was a poor 7th last October.
Imawildandcrazyguy also fails in dosage index with a whopping 6.00, and his rallying style is a negative. He has never run a 100+ Beyer and his distant fourth in the Derby is considered a poor prep. He does have enough races at 2, qualifies under the layoff rule since his last race was the Derby, and he lacks right side points in his dosage profile. As well, none of his 12 career starts (the most of anybody in the field) was at Belmont Park.
Tiago was a distant seventh in the Derby, his last start, which earns a knock for having a poor prep but a positive point for layoff. He is the only horse in the field to not qualify under the dosage profile angle, as he has 5 points to the right of the Intermediate. This angle is counterintuitive in a 1 1/2 mile race but it is actually a strong one here. He had just 1 start in his juvenile season, comes from well off the pace, and has not met the par of a 106 Beyer. He has been working out at Belmont but lacks a race over the surface.
