The following four horses tied for fourth place in this analysis:
Andromeda's Hero: Nick Zito kept this horse from the Preakness and saved him for the Belmont, hoping for a repeat of last year when Birdstone turned the trick. He has the required Derby or Preakness start, enough races at three, and a stakes win at 3 (the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay). He also uses a stalking style preferred here. However, he was underraced at two, did not have a sharp prep finishing 8th at Churchill Downs, lacks a 9 furlong win, and has no triple digit Beyers to his credit.
Pinpoint: The second of three Nick Zito entrants in the Belmont comes in off a win in the Sir Barton, the race Sarava used in 2002. Pinpoint has enough races at 3 with a stakes win, the sharp prep requirement, and the required layoff. On the negative side, he was underraced at 2, did not start in any other Triple Crown event, lacks a 9 furlong win, and has a top Beyer of just 87. His front-running style is also a negative in the 1 1/2 mile Belmont.
Southern Africa: This latecomer to the Triple Crown wars comes to Belmont off a win in the Lone Star Derby in Texas. He has enough races at 2 and 3, a stakes win at 3, and a sharp prep. However, he did not start in either the Derby or Preakness, has too long a layoff, has no wins at 1 1/8 miles, has not broken the century mark in the Beyers, and runs on the front end. He is likely to be caught in a speed duel with Pinpoint, A.P. Arrow, and Reverberate.
Reverberate: The runner-up in the Peter Pan Stakes will be going 1 1/2 miles on two weeks rest. The Sal Russo trainee has enough races at 3, a sharp prep, a correct layoff, and just meets the Beyer par with his 106 in that Peter Pan effort. On the negative side of the ledger he runs on the front end, has not won at 9 furlongs, has no stakes wins, was underraced at 2, and did not race in the other Triple Crown events.
The following two horses tied for eighth place:
A.P. Arrow: The lone D. Wayne Lukas entrant looks overmatched here, and is the most lightly raced in the field, going in the Belmont in just his 4th career start. He does have a win at over 9 furlongs, a maiden win at 1 1/4 miles at Churchill, which gives him a sharp prep race. His three career starts, all at 3, barely meet the requirement for number of races at 3. However, he had no races as a juvenile, has not run fast enough on the Beyer scale, has had too long a layoff, lacks a stakes win, and did not race in the Derby or Preakness.
Indy Storm: The third Nick Zito entrant ranks below his stablemates in this anaylsis. He comes into the Belmont off an allowance win which earns him a sharp prep within the correct layoff range. He also has enough wins at three. However, he likes to rally from off the pace, has not run faster than a Beyer of 89, has no wins at 1 1/8 or longer, has no stakes wins, was underraced at 2, and was not in the Derby or Preakness.
The following two horses tied for tenth place:
Chekhov: This Patrick Biancone trainee has just 1 career win and goes into the Belmont off a poor 4th beaten 12 lengths in the Peter Pan. He failed on all angles but two, having enough races at three and the correct layoff. He clearly does not belong in the Belmont under this analysis.
Nolan's Cat: Owner Ken Ramsay has sire Catienus in mind by entering this no-hoper, a maiden in 5 career starts, going to the Belmont off a close second in a maiden race at Churchill, the same race A.P. Arrow is using as a prep. He has enough races at 3 and comes off a sharp race, but fails on all other angles. His fastest Beyer is an 88.
