1. Home
  2. Sports
  3. Horse Racing

Analyzing the 2004 Belmont Contenders

By , About.com Guide

Belmont Secretariat Statue

The Secretariat Statue at Belmont Park

Cindy Pierson Dulay
Jun 6 2004
Rock Hard Ten - The runner-up in both the Santa Anita Derby and the Preakness Stakes passed on the Derby, and gets new rider Pat Valenzuela in the Belmont as Gary Stevens is committed to riding in the Epsom Derby the same day. He does have enough races at three but no stakes wins, had a sharp race last out, and is coming off the ideal layoff. He usually stays in a stalking position close to the pace, but did not do this at Pimlico. On the minus side, he did not race at two, lacks a stakes win at three, has no wins at 9 furlongs, and he has not run to the Beyer par of 106 (his best was a 103 at Santa Anita).

Birdstone - Birdstone skipped the Preakness after a disappointing Derby but the long layoff is the least of his worries. He was underraced at two, lacks a stakes win at three, is not coming off a sharp race, has not won at nine furlongs, and has not run to the Beyer par, in fact he has not broken 100. The only positives are that he did race in the Derby, has enough starts at three, and is capable of stalking the pace.

Mustanfar - This outsider skipped the first two legs of the Triple Crown after finishing fourth in the Blue Grass, instead starting in an allowance race at Belmont where he finished third. The only positives are that he has enough starts at three, is coming off a sharp race, albeit not in a stakes, and can stalk the pace. His negatives are many: he was underraced at two, does not have a stakes win at three, is coming off too long a layoff, has no wins at nine furlongs, and his best Beyer is a 100.

Tap Dancer - Last on our list is Tap Dancer, who has not won since last August and was overraced at two. Besides this, he was not in either of the Derby or Preakness, lacks a stakes win at three (in fact he has not won at three), has not won at nine furlongs, and his career best Beyer is an 89 in his seventh place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby. Worst still, he generally sits well off the pace early but never can put in a decent rally. On the positive side, he has enough races at three, is coming off a sharp race (fourth by three lengths in the Sir Barton), and is coming off a three week layoff. He is clearly outclassed in this company.

Back to the first 4 contenders

Triple Crown quick links:

Explore Horse Racing

About.com Special Features

Holiday Central

What to eat, where to go, fun things to do and how to save money on the perfect gifts. More >

Introduction to Pilates

Learning Pilates fundamentals can help you get the most out of your exercise regime. More >

  1. Home
  2. Sports
  3. Horse Racing
  4. Triple Crown
  5. History and Past Coverage
  6. Belmont Stakes Coverage
  7. 2004 Belmont Stakes
  8. Analyzing the 2004 Belmont Contenders

©2009 About.com, a part of The New York Times Company.

All rights reserved.