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The next 4 horses scored an equal number of points and are thus presented in alphabetical order:
Curlin is expected to go off at short odds on Derby day off his runaway wins in the Arkansas Derby and the Rebel Stakes, but given his ranking here, should be passed in the win pool unless somehow his odds increase to double digits. He is unraced at 2 (meaning he cannot be a dual qualifier), only has 3 career starts, and has not run to the Beyer par of 105, although he does have two triple-digit efforts. In addition, he stalks the pace which isn't the optimal running style in the Kentucky Derby.
Hard Spun barely passes the experience requirement with his 6 career starts, and he comes off a sharp final prep. However, that final prep race was a win in the Lane's End Stakes, a layoff of 6 weeks, he has not met the Beyer par (but his 101 effort at Turfway avoids demerit points given to those without a triple digit figure), and his stalking style is not favorable at Churchill Downs.
Sam P. finished third to Tiago in the Santa Anita Derby, earning him a sharp final prep, however he has not won a stakes race this year (he was also second in the Robert B. Lewis and fourth in the Holy Bull). He has not run a triple digit Beyer, he uses a stalking runstyle, is not a dual qualifier, and actually has not won a race since last November. He ranks the lowest of the Pletcher team in this analysis.
Xchanger may not enter the Derby, having made his final prep in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico, usually used as a prep for the Preakness. He won that event by almost 5 lengths and if not for 2 huge knocks on his chart he would have been up with the contenders for Louisville, coming into the Derby off a 2 week layoff which is still within range. He has never run a triple digit Beyer and he usually races on the front end. He may not be a dual qualifier but he actually passes on all other factors.
Stormello was one of the early choices for the Derby, when he won the Hollywood Futurity at 2 and then started off this year with a close second in the Fountain of Youth. However, this dual qualifier was a well-beaten fourth in the Florida Derby for his final prep, giving him a poor effort 5 weeks out. He also has never run a triple digit Beyer and likes to race up front.
The last 2 horses scored an equal number of points and are thus presented in alphabetical order:
Cobalt Blue has too many negative factors to be considered for the win. He is lightly raced with just 5 starts, did not have a sharp final prep finishing seventh beaten 18 lengths in the Illinois Derby as the heavy favorite, and he usually races up front. On the positive side he did race at 2, does have a stakes win this year (the San Felipe), and is coming off a 4 week layoff.
Sedgefield will be facing an uphill battle indeed. His final prep race is 29 days out, one day longer than the preferred layoff, and was a poor effort, a fourth beaten almost 6 lengths in the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes on the turf at Keeneland. He does not have a stakes win this year, he has never run a triple digit Beyer, and he usually stalks the pace but did race up front last time out. Given that 5 of his 8 starts have been on turf he probably belongs back on that surface.
