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Analyzing the Top 2007 Kentucky Derby Contenders




© Cindy Pierson Dulay

Continued from page 1

The next 6 horses scored an equal number of points and are thus presented in alphabetical order:

Cowtown Cat won the Illinois Derby for trainer Todd Pletcher, and satisfies most of the key angles in this analysis. However, he has never run a triple-digit Beyer, runs a stalking style, and is not a dual qualifier. If he is overbet he probably should not be played to win.

Dominican is the only 3-year-old in this analysis who does not qualify under the Dosage requirement, just missing with his 4.33, which also eliminates him from dual qualification, and he has never run a triple-digit Beyer. On the positive side, he is coming into the Derby off of two wins, in the Rushaway and then the Blue Grass by a nose, where he closed from off the pace into very slow fractions.

Liquidity is the first horse in this analysis who is not going into the Derby off a sharp prep, having finished fourth beaten 4 1/2 lengths in the Santa Anita Derby. As a result, he still lacks a stakes win (at any age, although we are only considering stakes wins at 3). He does have a triple digit Beyer when he was second in the Sham, and is a dual qualifier, but his stalking style is not preferred in the Derby.

Scat Daddy enters the Kentucky Derby off the same 5 week layoff as Barbaro, having won the Florida Derby for his final prep. He likes to stalk the pace which is a negative, and he has never run a triple digit Beyer. He does have enough career starts, as a multiple stakes winner at 2, and is a dual qualifier.

Teuflesberg has the most experience in this field with 15 career starts, 11 of those as a juvenile. He comes into the Derby off a sharp prep, beaten just a neck finishing fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes, and does have a stakes win this year, the Southwest at Oaklawn, where he ran a 100 Beyer. His front-running style is a huge negative in the Derby and he is not a dual qualifier.

Zanjero finished third in that blanket finish at the Bluegrass, beaten just a head by Dominican. He lacks a triple digit Beyer, has no stakes wins this year, and is not a dual qualifier. He had raced 8 times, rallies from off the pace (except in the Blue Grass given the slow pace up front), and will start in Louisville off a 3-week layoff.

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