The next 4 horses scored an equal number of points by our analysis and are presented in alphabetical order.
Barbaro is the Florida Derby winner, and is undefeated going to Louisville which may make him one of the favorites despite his low score on our system. His 103 Beyer at Gulfstream does not meet the 105 par but earns a point for being in the triple digits. He may be highly regarded but he does have some major knocks to overcome if he is to wear the Roses. He is short on experience with just 5 career starts, he is coming off a 5-week layoff, and his stalking style is not preferred at Churchill Downs. Based on these, he should be an underlay at post time.
Deputy Glitters is the first horse in this analysis to not have a sharp final prep, with a sixth place finish in the Wood beaten 15 lengths. He did earn a triple digit Beyer in the Tampa Bay Derby but that winning effort actually is a knock in the "duck" department, as no Derby winner has ever raced at Tampa. These two very serious knocks pretty much toss him from contention, along with the fact that he usually races up close to the pace.
Private Vow finished third in the Arkansas Derby, a sharp prep, but that was only his second start as a 3-year-old, neither of which was a stakes win, giving him two 2 negatives. He does have 8 career starts, but his career best Beyer, a 96, was earned as a 2-year-old and not fast enough for the Derby. His stalking style along with all these knocks could mean an off-the-board finish in Louisville.
Showing Up is the other undefeated horse going in, with a win in the Lexington Stakes in his usual stalking style His 100 Beyer in an allowance in March earns him minimum points in that department. However, what will be his undoing is lack of experience. No starts at 2 and just 3 career starts total mean he is still very green. He also has a puncture wound he suffered in the Lexington which they are hoping will heal in time for the Derby, but could mean he won't be at his best.
The next 5 horses tied for the least amount of points by our analysis and are presented in alphabetical order.
Bluegrass Cat is the first of five horses in our analysis to earn the least amount of points. His fourth place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes by 21 lengths denies him the necessary sharp prep, and his two races at Tampa Bay qualify him as a "duck". Finally, his 99 Beyer at the Tampa Bay Derby is his career best which is not fast enough. He may have impeccable breeding but he fails miserably under the winning profile.
Flashy Bull is another horse "on the bubble" due to lack of earnings at the time of writing, but even if he makes the field he faces an uphill battle. His seventh place finish in the Florida Derby earns him 2 knocks, namely, lack of a sharp prep and too long a layoff. His career best Beyer is a slow 94 in the Fountain of Youth. As well, he lacks a stakes win at three. He does have a bullet workout at Keeneland to his credit. He needs either Mr. Triester or Seaside Retreat to drop out before he can get in the Derby.
Mr. Triester was a distant second by over 9 lengths to Sweetnorthernsaint in the Illinois Derby which earns him points for a "sharp" prep. However, he has not won a stakes race, his 94 best Beyer is not fast enough, and his front-running style is not favored at Churchill. He will be making his final prep just one week prior to the Derby in the Derby Trial, and his performance there will decide if he goes to the Derby or not.
Seaside Retreat also comes out of the Blue Grass but finished sixth beaten 32 lengths. His career best 86 Beyer in the Lane's End Stakes is simply too slow to win the Derby. And to add insult to injury, he was fifth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay, making him a "duck". While he has the earnings to get in the race, he doesn't seem to have the ability. He is definitely going to the Derby now after a good work on April 27.
Sharp Humor led at every call at the Florida Derby except the one that matters most, when he was outfinished by Barbaro in the final strides. A sharp prep nonetheless, but still too long a layoff. He only has 2 races this year and his front-running style is another negative. About the only positive he has is the 102 Beyer he earned in his last start, not quite par but at least in the triple digits.
