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Analyzing the Preakness Stakes Contenders for 2013


horse racing preakness

Goldencents winning the Santa Anita Derby

© Kelley Carlson
Updated May 17, 2013

Once again this year we will attempt to handicap the probable Preakness field using angles that have pointed at the winner in past years. It is well known that to win the Preakness, you have to have raced in the Kentucky Derby, and if the Derby is not in the horse's past performances he is an immediate toss for the win. With this in mind, this angle is worth 2 points whereas all others are worth 1 point each. In recent years, only Red Bullet in 2000, Bernardini in 2006, and Rachel Alexandra in 2009 skipped the Derby to win, although some would argue Rachel Alexandra was good enough to win the Derby had her original owner entered her. Despite Pimlico being referred to as a speed-favoring oval, about half of the Preakness winners came from off the pace, while 1/3 of winners stalk. Horses more than 9 lengths off the pace after half a mile generally don't win the Black-Eyed Susans and closers need to be in contention at the top of the stretch.

We also recommend checking workout patterns in the final week since these are a good indicator of who is ready. Preferably you're looking for horses that came out of the Derby and only had one (no more, no less) workout between starts, not necessarily at Pimlico, not necessarily a "bullet", and preferably 4 or 5 furlongs in distance. Not having a work between the Derby and the Preakness is usually a negative.

Where there is a tie in points we will list the horses in alphabetical order.

Goldencents tops the analysis despite his poor performance in the Kentucky Derby and his usual front-running style, which was not employed in Louisville to disastrous results. However these were the only two knocks against him in the Preakness. He did run in the Derby, worth 2 points this year, he qualifies on number of starts and stakes performances, he has run a triple digit Beyer figure, and he lacks Professional points in his dosage profile.

On to page 2 for the rest of the horses

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