Every year, when the winner is declared for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, fans and turf writers immediately call him the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby, and based on the strength of his performance, make a mad rush for the future books to bet him down to low odds. But is this justifiable, given the strength of the so-called Juvenile Jinx? Until Street Sense won in 2007, no winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile had gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, and before that only ONE Juvenile winner, Timber Country, had gone on to win any Triple Crown race. In fact, horses who finish in the top three in the Juvenile have all but disqualified themselves from wearing the Roses 6 months later. This explains the strategy of some trainers, like Barclay Tagg with Nobiz Like Shobiz, have even skipped the Juvenile entirely despite putting together a respectable campaign at age two.
Below I have compiled a list of the top three finishers of every running of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and with how they fared in the Kentucky Derby in the table below. The results speak for themselves, making a much better case for betting again them than taking a chance on them. FYI - of the 2007 top three finishers, only Pyro will actually race in the 2008 Kentucky Derby since War Pass is out with an injury and Kodiak Kowboy has stayed in sprints.
Here are a few notes about horses who went on to do well in the Preakness or Belmont, although that list is pretty short and most are from 10 years ago or longer.
- 2006 1st place Street Sense was 2nd in the Preakness
- 2005 3rd place Afleet Alex won the Preakness and Belmont
- 2000 2nd place Point Given won the Preakness and Belmont
- 1995 3rd place Editor's Note won the Belmont
- 1994 1st place Timber Country won the Preakness
- 1993 3rd place Tabasco Cat won the Preakness and Belmont
- 1988 2nd place Easy Goer was 2nd in the Preakness and won the Belmont
- 1986 3rd place Alysheba won the Preakness and was 4th in the Belmont in addition to his Derby win listed below
- 1984 2nd place Tank's Prospect won the Preakness
Year First Second Third 2007 War Pass Pyro Kodiak Kowboy - ? - 2006 Street Sense Circular Quay Great Hunter 1 6 13 2005 Stevie Wonderboy Henny Hughes First Samurai - - - 2004 Wilko Afleet Alex Sun King 6th 3rd 15th 2003 Action This Day Minister Eric Chapel Royal 6th 16th - 2002 Vindication Kafwain Hold That Tiger - - - 2001 Johannesburg Repent Siphonic 8th - - 2000 Macho Uno Point Given Street Cry - 5th - 1999 Anees Chief Seattle High Yield 13th - 15th 1998 Answer Lively Aly's Alley Cat Thief 10th - 3rd 1997 Favorite Trick Dawson's Legacy Nationalore 8th - 9th 1996 Boston Harbor Acceptable Ordway - - - 1995 Unbridled's Song Hennessy Editor's Note 5th - 6th 1994 Timber Country Eltish Tejano Run 3rd 6th 2nd 1993 Brocco Blumin Affair Tabasco Cat 4th 3rd 6th 1992 Gilded Time It'sali'lknownfact River Special - - - 1991 Arazi Bertrando Snappy Landing 8th - 17th 1990 Fly So Free Take Me Out Lost Mountain 5th - 12th 1989 Rhythm Grand Canyon Slavic - - - 1988 Is It True Easy Goer Tagel - 2nd - 1987 Success Express Regal Classic Tejano - 5th - 1986 Capote Qualify Alysheba eased - 1st 1985 Tasso Storm Cat Scat Dancer - - - 1984 Chief's Crown Tank's Prospect Spend A Buck 3rd 7th 1st
