Belmont Stakes 101

Handicapping the Belmont is usually easier than the first two races, although the ability of the horses to handle extra distance can be tough to gauge. First and foremost, pay attention to the favorite. The favorite wins at a 44% rate, although odds-on favorites do less well with the last five losing. The field is usually smaller, from six to ten, and the track is quite wide with huge sweeping turns, so traffic is usually not a problem. Because these horses are coming off a grueling schedule, workouts are not as important before this race except for fresh horses just entering the series. Veterans of the previous two Triple Crown races will probably only have one or two maintenance works before the Belmont. Contrary to popular belief, horses who rally from far back don’t usually win this race. Instead you want a horse with good tactical speed who can stalk just off the pace and still have enough stamina to kick in down the lane to win. Pedigree can be an important factor as well since all the horses will have to go farther than they ever have before. The dosage index, a factor in the Derby but not the Preakness, raises its head again here to help us analyze the horses’ potential from their breeding. A dosage index of 4.0 or less is preferred and those horses having points in the last two positions of their dosage profile, known as the stamina wing, are considered to have a better chance. Having previous Belmont winners in a horse’s pedigree is also a plus.

As with the other two Triple Crown races, handicap the race just like you would any other before you try to apply any other angles to your selections. Don’t pick a horse just because of pedigree if he has never shown any ability to win at nine furlongs in the past. Of course you can always just pick by the name. Out of 138 Belmont Stakes winners, horses with names beginning in "C" have won 20 times while "S" is in second place with 17 victories.

Part 1 - History
Part 2 - Handicapping
Part 3 - Attending