Breeders' Cup Classic Analysis
by GLEN GALLIVANWire To Wire Racing Editor
This year's Breeders' Cup Classic lacks the dominant runner that has been the hallmark of past Classics. There isn't a true favorite in this year's field, making it a truly wide-open affair.
Behrens heads to Gulfstream Park as the front-runner for Horse of the Year honors. The 5-year-old may not be as flashy as some previous champions, but he has held his place in the upper ranks throughout the season. The son of Pleasant Colony possesses enough tactical speed to allow him to be placed virtually anywhere after the break. I believe he's by far the fastest older horse, but it's difficult to put too much faith in his chances.
It wasn't that long ago that he was struggling to compete against lesser-quality horses. Sure he's improved since then, but his recent success could also be because of the injury-plagued handicap division. Therefore, an improving sophomore could beat him.
On paper General Challenge appears to be a superstar in the making. The Bob Baffert-trainee earned an eye-popping Beyer Speed Figure of 119 when he captured the Pacific Classic (G1). But, this brings us to an important lesson in handicapping 101: races aren't run on paper.
The son of General Meeting has shipped out of his home state twice, failing to hit the board on both occasions. This is not a positive sign. It also didn't look good when Cat Thief went out to General Challenge's neck of the woods and defeated him in the Swaps (G1). Baffert recently said that his charge doesn't like to pass horses down the lane, gee, that's a quality of a champion. Something tells me that if he wants to find his way to the winner's circle on Nov. 6, he'll have to pass a few runners.
His recent blazing workouts at Gulfstream mean absolutely nothing to me. There's no question the horse is fast. But, I would have rather heard that he worked in company and attempted to pass a runner, that would've been a useful morning drill. There's absolutely no way it's worth betting on this California-bred gelding with all these negative factors. However, there is a sophomore that I do think is up to the challenge.
Lemon Drop Kid isn't what you would call a consistent runner. It is unlikely that he'll ever win four races in a row. However, when everything sets up right and the screws are tightened, this guy can make magic happen on the racetrack.
 Lemon Drop Kid |
Glenners Picks: Lemon Drop Kid, Behrens, and Vision and Verse.
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