Breeders' Cup Juvenile Analysis
by GLEN GALLIVANWire To Wire Racing Editor
It's always difficult 2-year-old races because these young runners can improve dramatically from race to race. Another difficulty in projecting a winner is whether any of these runners are ready to run a big race now or will they wait for next year's campaign to give that top effort. Last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile champ, Answer Lively, hit his best stride at the right time of the year. That's the way many of the big 2-year-old races set up; the best horse doesn't necessarily win, instead, the "now" horse prevails.
Finding this year's "now" horse will be difficult for the simple reason that this field is loaded with promising athletes. But, let's see if we can come up with this year's rising star.
Chief Seattle has only raced three times in his career, but he's shown a great deal of promise so far. He broke his maiden at first asking by over nine widening lengths. After that dominating performance his trainer, John Kimmel, decided his charge was ready to tackle the big boys.
The son of Seattle Slew started next in the Futurity (G1) against a stellar field that included the undefeated More Than Ready. He showed his "greenness" in this event, stumbling at the start and running awkwardly throughout the stretch drive. Even though he finished fourth, he only lost by little more than a length. This was truly a remarkable performance considering all the problems he had and this was only his second career start.
Next came the Champagne (G1) where he once again went up against formidable opponents. This time he broke sharply and went immediately to the front. While on the lead, he was challenged by a number of rivals. After putting away More Than Ready and fighting off a strong test from High Yield, Chief Seattle opened up a commanding two-length lead at the top of the stretch. But then he began to show the effects of running hard every step of the way. His stride began to shorten as the wire got closer and he couldn't hold off the strong late challenge from Greenwood Lake.
So that brings us to an important question: will Chief Seattle be able to learn to harness his early speed so he can save something for the final furlong? The horse is so lightly raced that you have to believe he will show more maturity with additional experience. I honestly believe that this runner will be something special and will find his way to the winner's circle, on either November 6th or the first Saturday in May next year.
Captain Steve, another interesting youngster that has shown improvement as the season progresses, ships to Hallandale as one of two entries from Bob Baffert's stable. The son of Fly So Free hasn't attracted as much early attention as his stablemate Forest Camp. However I believe Captain Steve will prove to be the better of the two.
He exits a run away victory in the Breeders' Futurity (G2) at Keenland, the same race that answer lively used as a prep for his victory in the Cup. You must always respect Baffert's youngsters and this one has the look of becoming a major player.
Glenners Picks: Chief Seattle, Captain Steve and High Yield.
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