Breeders' Cup Sprint Analysis
by GLEN GALLIVANWire To Wire Racing Editor
When handicapping a race like the Sprint, it's vital to determine which horses are sharp enough to win. After looking over this year's entries it's clear that Artax will be the favorite. So we must decide right off the bat if he's worth taking at a short price, or will he regress off of his current form and bounce in this affair?
The 4-year-old son of Marquetry has annihilated the competition the last two times. That's including his most recent runaway victory in the Forest Hills Handicap (G2), which marked the first time he triumphed at six-furlongs. He earned an eye-popping Beyer Speed Figure of 123 for that performance and it's pretty obviously, that if he runs back to that effort, he'll be getting his picture taken on Nov. 6th.
There's no doubt he's a tough customer to pass when leading down the stretch. As always, he'll have to overcome the tendency he has of breaking slow. In the aforementioned Forest Hills he did break alertly and took command of the race from the get-go. However, just because he broke well once, that doesn't mean you can expect him to do that every time, especially considering his past history. Frankly, the Louis Albertrani-trainee isn't good enough to spot the competition the lengths he'll give up if he does his typical slow start.
Even if you choose to ignore his poor breaking habits, there is another solid reason to look elsewhere for the winner of the Sprint. The Cup will mark his 15th start of a season that saw him go up against the best sprinters the East Coast has to offer. On top of that, he's run two monster races; this sure sets him up for a big bounce in Hallendale.
So if we're not going to take Artax, we have to take Forestry, right? Nope. Guess again.
The Storm Cat colt did set the Saratoga Track on fire with his impressive score in the King's Bishop (G1) back in Aug. However, the Bob Baffert-trainee hasn't raced since. It's a difficult task to have a 3-year-old train on workouts alone for a race of this nature. Also, this will be the first time he challenges older horses.
So who does that leave?
Lexicon exits a smashing victory in the Ancient Title (G2) at Santa Anita. The 4-year-old son of Conquistor Cielo sprinted to the early lead and fought off a determined Kona Gold while earning a BSF of 120. The Richard Mandella-trainee appears to be the speed of the speed, meaning he could break on top and clear the field early. If this happens, he would be long gone before his rivals even knew what hit them. He also seems to be the type of runner that would excel over the Gulfstream strip.
 Vicar |
Glenners Picks: Lexicon, Vicar and Affirmed Success
Have a comment or question about this topic? Jump on over to the bulletin board!
Return to index of Glenners' Picks
Return to the Breeders' Cup special
Photo by author. Breeders' Cup logo courtesy of the Breeders' Cup and used with permission
