Breeders' Cup Mile Analysis

by GLEN GALLIVAN
Wire To Wire Racing Editor

Maybe it's just me, but this year's Breeders' Cup Mile looks rather weak. Where are the Da Hoss's and Spinning World's of the world? None of these runners will scare off the competition. In fact, very few of them appear to be worthy of taking such a prestigious event. However, that does mean that there's a good chance that the winner will light up the tote board, and that alone should be more than enough incentive to thoroughly handicap this field.

Whenever analyzing a race like this where it's going to be difficult to select a winner, it's helpful to start by eliminating the horses that you believe have little chance of winning. That being said, let's get rid of Delay of Game, Divide and Conquer, Docksider, Khumba Mela and Tuzla. Those runners obviously have some talent, but they don't appear to be fast enough to contend and are overmatched in here.

Then we'll toss Hawksley Hill and Garbu. Sure, this pair merits some attention, but they're going to get overplayed because of their connections and will offer absolutely no value at the windows. As hard as this is to imagine, Hawksley Hill could go off as the post time favorite and that is simply amazing. Now don't get me wrong, he's a good runner that fires off some big races, but the problem is that he rarely finishes first. This 6-year-old hangs worse than a cheap suit. There's absolute no way anyone should their hard earned money on him without at least getting a fair price, and that simply won't happen on Nov. 6th.

Meanwhile, it's apparent that Garbu needs more real estate to do his best running. The 5-year-old son of Strawberry Road has failed miserably in his last two races, which were both at this distance of a mile. Then when you throw in the fact that Bill Mott trains him and will surely be ridden by a top-notch jockey, you can basically forget about getting any kind of reasonable price.

Let's see where we stand after eliminating those competitors.

European horses struggled in the first two runnings of the Breeders' Cup at Gulfstream, failing to win a single race. Oh wait a second, I'm not the history guy, I'm the tout. Anyway, let's just say that foreign based runners have struggled and that brings us to Lend A Hand.

Middlesex Drive

After closely examining the 4-year-old English-bred's European form, it's difficult not to like his chances. He's hit the board in all but one of his seven attempts at this distance and he's been facing the best milers on that side of the Atlantic. He appears to be a stalker, which means he doesn't have to come from too far out of it. This is extremely important in a race that'll draw a full field of competitors that'll likely cause all kinds of traffic problems throughout.

Now we just have to determine if he's the one that's going to snap the European losing streak? He should have an excellent shot against this mediocre North America bunch.

Glenners Picks: Lend A Hand, Silic and Middlesex Drive

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Photo by author. Breeders' Cup logo courtesy of the Breeders' Cup and used with permission