TRACKMASTER'S COUNTDOWN TO THE BREEDER'S CUP

The Breeder's Cup Juvenile

Bonus - Part 7 in a series
by Tom Brohamer

I've had no reason to change my mind regarding the chances of the two California-based youngsters in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Flame Thrower and Street Cry have both earned pace and speed figures usually associated with Derby-bound three-year-olds in the spring of the year. These may be the two best two-year-olds since Silver Charm who did not compete in the fall of the 1996 season. I have never been a "homer" in this particular race. In fact, I haven't supported a California-based two-year-old in years. It may be wishful thinking, but we may have something special in this millennium year. The Juvenile has yet to produce a Derby winner, but hope springs eternal and maybe we'll finally hit the Juvenile - Derby parlay.

The figures for Oak Tree's Norfolk Stakes have been a disappointment every year in recent memory. It has produced some decent horses, but the figures have been uniformly dull, even by two-year-old standards. The Norfolk winners have seldom been live in the B.C. Juvenile but the 2000 edition may be a striking departure from the norm. The pace and speed figures are exceptional for horses at this early stage of their development. Flame Thrower and Street Cry are both capable of running better than par early and then continuing on to a strong final number. These colts are a rarity. Most good runners do not earn comparable figures until February or March of their sophomore years. California has two top youngsters and both figure strongly in the B.C. Juvenile. Which one figures to win on Saturday? That choice is not an easy one.

In the seven furlong Del Mar futurity, Street Cry made a menacing move to hook Flame Thrower, but the latter dug in and withstood the challenge. Bettors then assumed that two-turns would favor Street Cry and proceeded to bet him to favoritism in the Norfolk. The result was a carbon copy of the Futurity. What may have been missing from the equation was the determined nature of Flame Thrower. He simply refuses to yield the lead, despite being tired and hard-used. Could we have another Affirmed - Alydar rivalry on our hands? That would be a genuine treat for next year's Derby picture.

There is a very good chance that we may see another 1-2 finish by these two colts, but they are not the only good two-year-olds on the planet. Arabian light and A.P.Valentine have also earned better- than-par figures. The latter earned his credentials despite much trouble in his Champagne win. The race shape favored his style, but he did his job in workman-like fashion and could move forward again this weekend.

Bob Baffert sent Arabian Light to the mid-west rather than tackle Flame Thrower again (also a Baffert trainee) and the colt inhaled his field on the turn in a powerful performance. Although neither is at the level of the top two, two-year-olds tend to advance rapidly and either could step forward on Saturday and claim the Juvenile championship.

Regardless of the outcome, we are looking at the best crop of future Derby contenders in recent memory. This article provided by TrackMaster, an Equibase company. TrackMaster provides enhanced handicapping products and selections (including entire Breeders' Cup Card analysis) for thoroughbred, harness and quarter horse racing at www.trackmaster.com

All articles in the series:

• Part 1 - Steve Davidowitz (Distaff, Juvenile Fillies, Mile and Sprint)
• Part 2 - James Quinn (Classic)
• Part 3 - Steve Davidowitz (F/M Turf, Juvenile, Turf, and Classic)
• Part 4 - Tom Brohamer (Distaff)
• Part 5 - James Quinn (Turf)
• Part 6 - James Quinn (Mile)
• Part 7 - Tom Brohamer (Juvenile)

Article courtesy of Trackmaster.com. Breeders' Cup logo courtesy of the Breeders' Cup Limited.

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