TRACKMASTER'S COUNTDOWN TO THE BREEDER'S CUP
This is part 3 in a six part series from trackmaster.com, and is the second of Steve Davidowitz' two articles listing of top Breeders' Cup contenders, with comments, and fair-value odds one month before the 16th annual Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs, November 6.
The first installment included rankings for the $2 million BC Distaff; as well as for the $1 million BC Juvenile Fillies; $1 million BC Mile, and $1 million BC Sprint. The rankings below are for the $1 million Filly and Mare Turf, as well as for the $1 million BC Juvenile; $2 million BC Turf; and the $4 million BC Classic.
Obviously, these ratings are intended as an early guide, with final rankings, selections and wagering strategies to be published on Friday, November 5, the day before the EIGHT CUP RACES WILL BE RUN AT Churchill Downs.
FILLY & MARE TURF, $1 million at 1 3/8 miles.
A competitive race for sure, a race in which good players can expect to get real value on several legit contenders, while the probable favorite Perfect Sting surely will run well, but could be slightly vulnerable at the distance.1. CAFFE LATTE 9-2. . .Seemed to find her best form in her Del Mar finale and looms a serious upset threat at a comfortable distance after running fourth in this event last year.
2. PERFECT STING 5-2. . .Been outstanding all year and looms logical favorite and one to beat.
3. CRIMPLENE 6-1. . .European with questionable designs on the BC Distaff on dirt has obvious credentials for this and her connections might see the light before BC Day. Respect if she goes here.
4. PETRUSHKA 9-2. . .Another European with good credentials, including as pair of Group 1 wins.
5. HAPPYANUNOIT 8-1. . .Has good overall form but must be supplemented to the race.
6. SNOW POLINA 6-1. . .Been close to the best in the division more than once and can not be safely eliminated.
7. TRANQUILITY LAKE 12-1. . .Has front running speed for this type of contest and will be worth a long look if the competing pace is soft.
8. ELA ATHENA 15-1. . .European was good second against OK males in the Man O War at Belmont, fits better here.
9. GAVIOLA 12-1. . .Is a classy 3 year old who may have enough distance limitations to persuade trainer Billy Turner Jr. to keep her out of this contest. Worth a careful look in the Spinster at Keeneland.
BC JUVENILE, $1 million at 1-1/16 miles.
The third horse on this list is the best Kentucky Derby prospect I've seen this year.1. FLAME THROWER 5-2. . .Showed good speed and the will to win in a pair of sharp stakes wins at Del Mar. Bred to handle at least 1-1/16 miles, possibly longer and gets a chance to run at that distance in Saturday's Norfolk at Oak Tree.
2. STREET CRY 3-1 . .Godolphin runner that was based on the west coast all summer, ran an encouraging race when beaten a zop by Flame Thrower in the Del Mar Futurity. Hard to fault, hard to ignore and might turn the tables on Flame Thrower in the Norfolk.
3. A.P. VALENTINE 9-2. . .This long striding, beautifully proportioned son of A.P. Indy was the single most impressive maiden winner I saw all year. Nick Zito trained and it is not clear if Derby-Ace trainer will pursue a berth in the BC Juvenile with a colt who could win the 2001 Kentucky Derby.
4. SAINT VERRE 12-1. . .Was OK fourth in the Hopeful in first start for Shug McGaughey and then won his next outing by seven like a Derby prospect. Figures to be a major factor in the BC Juvenile if connections go that route.
5. CITY ZIP 8-1. . .Speed bred, hard trying colt has been mowing them down since July and is strong enough and versatile enough to go at least one mile, maybe 1-1/16th.
6. TRAILTHEFOX 15-1. . .Beaten by Flame Thrower before he demolished weaker in the Arlington Washington Futurity. Another worth a closer look in next outing.
7. POINT GIVEN 15-1. . .Bob Baffert traqined runner was beaten by stablemate Flame Thrower before he went to Kentucky to win a stakes. Seeking another stakes at Keeneland before he goes in the BC Juvenile.
8. BURNING ROMA 15-1. . .Upset City Zip on a claim of foul after makingt solid move. Deserves a closer look in next outing.
9. MACHO UNO 12-1. .Made a good move before weakening in the Hopeful and has been touted as a likely horse to watch for the rest of his career. Maybe.
10. YONAGUSKA 20-1. . Lukas speedball scored dead heart win with City Zip in the Hopeful and seems to have distance limitations.
11. SCORPION 20-1. . Finished well enough in the Futurity and is bred to go longer. Might be worth keeping tabs of this one's development into his 3 year old year.
12. OMMADON 50-1.. Made a nice move in the Futurity to merit another look.
The BC Turf, $2 million at 1-1/2 miles on the grass.
As always, the complexion of this race could change dramatically pending the results of the Turf Classic at Belmont on Saturday, as well as the likelihood that several good Europeans suddenly will jump into the picture with little warning.1. MUTAMAM 7-2. . .European scored a handy win over Commander Collins and other good 1-1/2 mile types at Ascot two weeks ago and his connections have not ruled out a BC invasion.
2. CIRO 9-2. . .Christophe Clemente was quite satisfied with this 3 year old's smooth win in latest. Developing fast, might be the right one in wide open event.
3. KING CUGAT 9-2. . .Billy Mott trained 3 year old was narrowly beaten in Chicago, but has been solid since he discovered grass as a 2 year old. Ace trainer makes few mistakes with grass horses, especially BC grass horses.
4. FANTASTIC LIGHT 3-1. . .Dominated modest group in his U.S. debut for Godolphin and we'll get to see him again in the Turf Cup at Belmont.
5. COMMANDER COLLINS 10-1. . .European from John Gosden's barn was very good third to top class Montjeu last month. Goes in the Turf Cup and connections say they will use that race as a BC barometer. So will I.
6. NORTHERN QUEST 10-1. . .Seems on the improve and rates a chance to compete at this level. Find out more in the Turf Cup.
7. FRUITS OF LOVE 10-1. . .Has met top notch talent in many ports and needs only a good performance in the Canadian Invitational to earn his ticket into this affair. Consider in exotics if he makes the race.
8. DOWN THE AISLE 12-1. . .Veteran Mott trainee has some good races, but is a marginal contender, pending the European invasion.
9. WHATABRAINSTORM. 30-1. . Late running 3 year old also has advanced nicely through the season and might deserve inclusion in exotics at huge odds.
The BC CLASSIC, for 3 year olds and up, $4 million, at 1-1/4 miles. If three of the top four get to this amazing race in peak form, this Classic will be one of the strongest races in recent years. If the top one gets here in peak form, it won't matter what any of the others do.
1. FUSAICHI PEGASUS 7-5. . .Quite simply, this is the most talented horse I've seen since Spectacular Bid. If he gets into this race in peak form it will take a Secretariat-like performance to beat him.
2. LEMON DROP KID 5-2. . .His narrow win over Behrens in moderate time was no demerit in my book. It was a game victory by a top horse that obviously was not at his very best. That's like a top pitcher winning without his best stuff. Only really good ones can do that. The logical opponent for horse of the Year.
3. TIZNOW 4-1. . .Beautifully managed 3 year old was sharp second tgo older rivals in Southern California before blowing away his own age group in his record setting Super Derby at this distance. A serious upset threat if Fusaichi Pegasus is slightly below his best.
4. GIANT'S CAUSEWAY 12-1. . .Versatile and very classy European is bred to handle dirt but it is hard to see him beating a good group of Americans at their own game.
5. SKIMMING 15-1. . .Front running speed type in a race with stalkers and closers. Might benefit from a freshening and if he gets a speed favoring racing surface, he could get a piece of this at a generous price.
6. GOLDEN MISSILE 15-1. . .Was terrific through most of the year and would be a trifecta threat if he returned to his best.
7. CAPTAIN STEVE 20-1. . .Good form throughout his career and he's not yet at his physical peak. A natural router that is sure to be a stronger 4 year old.
8. BEHRENS 20-1. . .Very good horse gave it everything he had when beaten a zop by Lemon Drop Kid in a very sharp effort, but how much better can he run at this stage in his career.
9. ALBERT THE GREAT 30-1. . .Set a brisk pace in the Jerome and trainer Nick Zito was furious. Still, he has stalking speed and is eligible for natural improvement later in his 3 year old season.
10. EL CORREDOR 30-1. .Was cleanly defeated by Fusaichi Pegasus after good wins out west. Can't really see him winning here and in fact, might better go in the Sprint.
Steve Davidowitz analyzes races from around the country every weekend under BEST BETS. To access Steve's column and spot plays for this weekend, click here,
Steve's columns are available for review free the following Monday on the Steve Davidowitz page.
All articles in the series:
- Part 1 - Steve Davidowitz (Distaff, Juvenile Fillies, Mile and Sprint)
- Part 2 - James Quinn (Classic)
- Part 3 - Steve Davidowitz (F/M Turf, Juvenile, Turf, and Classic)
- Part 4 - Tom Brohamer (Distaff)
- Part 5 - James Quinn (Turf)
- Part 6 - James Quinn (Mile)
- Part 7 - Tom Brohamer (Juvenile)
Article courtesy of Trackmaster.com. Breeders' Cup logo courtesy of the Breeders' Cup Limited.
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