TRACKMASTER'S COUNTDOWN TO THE BREEDER'S CUPPart 1 in a six part series from trackmaster.com
This part is from Steve Davidowitz
Other articles in the series:
Part 2 - James Quinn (Classic)
The Breeders' Cup is now one month and one weekend away, a good time for my annual FREE overview of the most likely contenders in all eight Breeders' Cup events.
For this week, here are my rankings, odds and comments for four Breeders' Cup races---The Distaff, the Juvenile Fillies, the Mile and the Sprint. Coming up next will be my rankings for the Juvenile, the Filly and Mare Turf, the Turf and the Classic. Final Breeders' Cup Analysis, selections and wagering strategies will be available as usual, on Friday, November 4, the day before the Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
$2 MILLION BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF. . .1 1/8 miles.
Can BEAUTIFUL PLEASURE become the first horse to 'THREEPEAT' in a BC race?
1. RIBOLETTA 8-5. . .Been very impressive in her last few outings on both coasts. Won powerfully in California when the saddle slipped and won in New York with a dominating performance under a confident ride from Chris McCarron.
2. BEAUTIFUL PLEASURE 5-2. . .Seeking 'three-peat' and is still the one to catch.
3. HERITAGE OF GOLD 3-1. . .Beat 'Pleasure' twice, but lost once and then lost to Riboletta too. Obvious threat.
4. JOSTLE 10-1. . Good 3 year old with good form against her age group all year, but will meeting an excellent group of older rivals.
Plus SPAIN, who must continue her cycle of improved performances to crack the top three; LU RAVI who has made moves behind tough foes; CRIMPLENE a multiple stakes winner in Europe who was unable to threaten top males in her most recent outing overseas is worth a look if shipped in for this or the Filly and Mare Turf and SURFSIDE, who has plenty of talent but is just now coming back to the races after an injury last spring.
$1 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES. . .1-1/16 miles.
DANINGINMYDREAMS looks like the real thing. Find out a little more in her next outing.
1. DANCINGINMYDREAMS 3-1. . .Full sister to Heavenly Prize finished strongly in the Matron to just miss catching RAQGING FEVER and has a bright future in routes.
2. CINDY'S HERO 9-2. . . Won Del Mar Debutante like she will handle longer and stronger.
3. FREEFOURRACING 6-1. . .European winner of three of her four starts on turf overseas has been purchased by Stonerside stable and sent to Neil Drysdale.
4. RAGING FEVER 6-1. . .Has speed, class and good connections, obvious contender who could outrun her distance limitations, especially on a speed biased track.
5. STORMY PICK 8-1. . .Improving miss from Allen Jerkens' barn will bear watching in the Frizette.
6. CASH DEAL 8-1. . .Another fleet, Lukas trained threat in a race he has owned. Remember Cash Run.
7. HARMONY LODGE 8-1. . .Looked like a world beater in her career debut at Saratoga, but has not been seen since. Might be mending, might surface in time to merit a serious chance.
8. SALTY YOU 15-1. . .Outgamed several in good Woodbine stakes that featured several worthy of a closer look, DANCETHRUTHEDAWN and POETICALLY, listed below.
9. GOLD MOVER 15-1. . .Talented, multiple stakes winner has shin problems to overcome, not likely to make it in time.
10. DANCETHRUTHEDAWN 20-1. . .Made nice late move in the Mazarine stakes at Woodbine, worth a closer look.
11. POETICALLY 30-1. . .Made nice mid race move in the Mazarine, worth a closer look.
SILK CONCORDE 30-1 .Showed some quality at Calder, not out of this race that could become wide open if DANCINGINMYDREAMS does not deliver on the promise she has shown in her first two career outings.
$1 MILLION MILE (Turf)One of the most wide open Breeders' Cup races of recent years.
1. ARKADIAN HERO 6-1. . .Was much the best when bothered in the Atto Mile at Woodbine. Had been a European sprinter before this race, but now looks like a logical upset threat.
2. SUPER QUERCUS 7-2. . .Looked like a world beater early in the season and will need Bobby Frankel's best work to get him back to that form for this spot. Can do.
3. LADIES DIN 7-2. . .Was very sharp this summer. Stablemate to last year's winner Silic is just as good and will be supplemented to the field by trainer Julio Canani.
4. AFFIRMED SUCCESS 5-1. . .Former disappointment in the BC Sprint has been sharp in all turf starts this year and rates an upset chance.
5. PURELY COZZENE 8-1. . .Seems the best of the 3 year old turfers on the west coast. Might fit with these.
6. HAP 8-1. . .Developing nicely for Billy Mott, who has made few mistakes with Breeders' Cup grass horses.
7. FORBIDDEN APPLE 15-1. . .Looked brand new when he scored upset win in a Belmont stakes after a layoff for layoff Ace-Christophe Clement. Worth watching carefully.
8. BERTOLINO 15-1. . .Godolphin owned runner seems to be a European sprinter, but European sprinters have a way of running strongly at one mile in America.
9. RIVIERA 15-1. . .Another Frankel trained contender. This one scored a rather lucky win over ARCADIAN HERO in the Atto Mile. Still, he did not have a favorable post position and with the experience behind him, now has to be given a chance to threaten at same distance with similar.
10. WHITE HEART 30-1. . .Steady form in good California races, might crack the trifecta.
11. KINGSALA 30-1. . .European to watch if he survives an important test at Longchamps in Paris this weekend.
$1 MILLION SPRINT, 6 Furlongs.
A race with a well managed, clear cut betting favorite.
1. KONA GOLD 5-2. . .Been close in this race and has been holding excellent form all year through well spaced campaign.
2. CALLER ONE 9-2. . .Very fast, sparingly raced 3 year old with enough speed to be major threat.
3. MORE THAN READY 9-2. . .Former Derby colt has always had ability, but there is no right race for him on the BC card. This is as close as it gets, but ideally he would prefer 6-1/2 or 7 furlongs.
4. FOREST CAMP 8-1. . .Former Baffert trained protégé was impressive in his first outing for Eduardo Inda after a complete overhaul.
5. TRIPPI 8-1. . .Very fast and classy winner of the 7 furlong Vosburgh can not be safely eliminated, but he will face much more pressure for the lead here.
6. BIG JAG 8-1. . .Powerful closer was third in the BC Sprint last year after a strong campaign and now must try to do better than that with minimum recent racing.
7. CHILUKKI 12-1. . .Talented filly is very well suited to sprints and this race has a long history of good filly contenders and winners.
9. HONEST LADY 20-1. . .Talented filly packs a powerful late kick at 7 furlongs but will need a complete pace meltdown to win this at 6.
10. DELAWARE TOWNSHIP 25-1. . . had a rough trip in the Vosburgh and might show that he really brelongs here in his final prep race at Belmont in mid-October.
11. ONE WAY LOVE 30-1. . .Canada's top sprinter has run well enough in a pair of NY stakes to remain on the leader board. Better needed to crack the Trifecta.
As for the other four BC races, let's just say for the moment that FUSAICHI PEGASUS is the best 3 year old I've seen in 20 years. Hopefully, we'll get the chance to see him conclude an abbreviated career at his best in the Breeders' Cup Classic. At the same time, the best 2 year old colt I've seen in the east to date is the recent maiden winner, A.P.VALENTINE and the best 2 year old I saw out west was FLAME THROWER, with more to be said about both of those races and the Breeders' Cup Turf and the Filly and Mare Turf next article.
Steve Davidowitz provides commentary about racing and handicapping, as well as analyzes races from around the country, every weekend at www.trackmaster.com. Steve's columns are available for review free the following Monday.
Article courtesy of Trackmaster.com. Breeders' Cup logo courtesy of the Breeders' Cup Limited.