Because the race is such an event, it is probably the most over analyzed race in the world. People track countless statistics about the winners trying to narrow down the field to that one special horse that will become the Kentucky Derby winner. Given that the field consists of as many as twenty top quality horses, that is not a very easy job, but there are some general guidelines that can help you handicap the race. First, stay away from rookie Derby trainers and jockeys as the pressure is usually too much and they can make fatal mistakes. Don’t pick a horse with a new jockey as he really needs to know his horse well to deal with the crowded conditions of this race. Stay away from horses who did not race at age two or who have less than six races total, you want a horse with experience for this race. Also as a sign of experience, your horse needs to be a stakes winner and have run at least as far as a mile and an eighth in a prep race. Workouts at Churchill Downs can be important too. If the horse can’t run well in the morning, don’t expect him to run well on the first Saturday in May. Another factor that many like to use is the dosage index, a statistic computed from a horse’s pedigree that is supposed to indicate his in-bred potential for running the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby. The ideal candidate has a dosage index of 4.0 or less with extra consideration given for having been weighted within ten pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Free Handicap, making the horse a "dual qualifier."
As you can see, there is a lot more info, probably too much, available for the Kentucky Derby horses, making your job of handicapping even more difficult. Your best strategy is to handicap it like you would any other race and then look at the various factors above to see if you choice fits the pattern of a Derby winner before making your wagers. Of course you can always use the old standby of picking the horse with the best name if you are totally confused. This may sound stupid, but it takes a pretty good horse to even make it into the race so realistically they all have a chance and traffic problems can give unexpected results.
How it all began
Trying to pick a winner
Being there in person
