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Analyzing the 2004 Preakness Contenders

Page 2

By Cindy Pierson Dulay, About.com

Preakness Stakes Barn

The Preakness Stakes Barn at Pimlico.

Cindy Pierson Dulay
May 10 2004
Water Cannon - He is the local hope, coming off his win in the Federico Tesio, but not coming out of the Derby is a huge negative angle. He also has yet to run better than an 88 Beyer, well below the par of 106, and lacks stakes wins at 2 and graded wins at 3. To his advantage, he likes to stalk the pace rather than go to the front, has enough starts at two and three, and has had a workout between his last start and the Preakness. It is worth noting that the local horses don't often win the Preakness but they do finish in the money, often at long odds, like Magic Weisner's second place finish in 2002.

Little Matth Man - He has not raced since finishing seventh in the Wood. Like Water Cannon, this is a negative since he was not in the Derby. He was overraced at two (eight starts; the limit is seven), has not run better than an 89 Beyer, and lacks a stakes win at two and a graded win at three. Although he likes to rally from off the pace, which is a positive angle, he likes to drop back more than 10 lengths off the pace, a negative angle. He does have enough starts at three and a workout before the race, but there are too many negatives to give him serious consideration on Saturday.

Sir Shackleton - The Derby Trial winner is the second most underraced entrant, with just four career starts all this year, and did not race for the Roses, a negative. He likes to stalk the pace and has enough starts at three with the aforementioned graded win, and has had a workout, but his inexperience means he does not have enough starts at two nor a stakes win that year, and his best Beyer was a 97 in a 7 furlong allowance race at Keeneland. He simply is not ready to step up into Grade 1 Triple Crown company.

Rock Hard Ten - The most underraced horse in the field has just three starts in his career, his last one being a close second in the Santa Anita Derby where he was disqualified to third. Like Sir Shackleton, he does have enough starts at three (barely) and no starts at two. Unlike Sir Shackleton, he lacks a graded stakes win at three. On the positive side, he does like to stalk the pace, in a race that prefers horses that don't want the front, and has had a workout during the week before the Preakness. His best Beyer is a 103 at Santa Anita, still too slow for this event.

Eddington - He also did not make the Derby field, a huge knock this week, and did not have enough starts at two, nor a stakes win at two. His best Beyer is a 101 in an allowance race at Gulfstream, too slow for Triple Crown competition. The only positives we could find are in his stalking style, his starts at three, and his workout this week.

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