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Cindy Pierson Dulay

2012 Experimental Free Handicap

By January 30, 2013

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horse racingThe Experimental Free Handicap ranks colts and fillies who were 2-year-olds in 2012 and helps determine the dual qualifiers for the Kentucky Derby. Shanghai Bobby, winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Champion 2-year-old of 2012, is the high weight assignment of 126 pounds while Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Beholder has the top weight on the filly list at at 123 pounds. Get the full lists plus the dual qualifiers here.

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January 30, 2013 at 7:34 pm
(1) DogsUp says:

As noted, the distance factor of the Experimental Hcp Wts is one mile and a sixteenth ~ *8.5 furlongs.

Leader Shanghi Bobby was defeated by Itsmyluckyday in late Jan 2013, already, at this distance and set the track record in that event at Churchill Downs.
G3 Holly Bull – top weight 122 Sh.Bobby, 120 IMLD.

The *8.5 distance is used as a representative and frequent par at many tracks providing a Delta-number measurement for readiness of speed and distance in testing most Kty Derby hopefuls.

Given the positioning of both colts on the weighted chart, and the 8.5 fl-factor, one can use these factors as Delta numbers in evaluating the ultimate twenty charges gated in the Derby when calculating their own handicapping figures and machinations.

If SB is tailing off/peaking for reversal, then IMLD should become the Delta horse.
Along with IMLD and Kty DbY field’s PPs evaluations, and obviously taking into account other factors as breeding for distance (and where these colts are hitting best stride at calls of at/over a mile-eighth .

Prior surfaces and surface conditions the day of Derby and bottom conditioning from racing in Graded 3-y-o events to determine their possibilities to get an additional 1.5 furlongs.

Of course, assuming one or both make it to the race based on qualification points and/or phyiscal readiness to gate.

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