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My annual analysis of the top contenders to try and select a winner by matching each to the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner using many of the more popular angles and statistical trends. As you might expect, Wood and Gotham winner I Want Revenge (right) tops the list, but you may be surprised at how low some of the other favored horses are ranked.


April 23, 2009 at 6:15 pm
(1) Bill Floyd says:

I just had a long message that was wiped out by your system, so, I’ll say it brief this time. Quality Road is grossly underrated in your anal. I Want Revenge is overrated 3-4 spots. The three most likely $$ horses are Q Rd, Gen Qtrs & Friesan Fire.

April 23, 2009 at 6:54 pm
(2) Douglas Rutherford says:

Cindy, its a pleasure to read your Analyzing The Top 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders Profile again, as it is each and every year. I see that this year, you have Chocolate Candy – a long shot – right up there in your top four picks for the WIN! Its nice to see facts for the Derby. I like making a Triple Crown wager each year on afew horses. I only use a horse that has already had a start at Belmont, which leaves me with FRIESAN FIRE and MUSKET MAN . Even though horses that have had a start over the Belmont track DO NOT show much of a winning record at Churchill, but in order to WIN at Belmont, you best have a start over the track if you want to win. So, with this in mind, which of the two do you feel fits the DERBY best? I will play both to WIN the Triple Crown, even though they dont seem to hold a very high Derby profile. I personaly feel that there could be three diffrent WINNERS in the Triple Crown. Which is another good wager for the Triple Crown . Where do you believe SQUARE EDDIE will finish in the Derby…honestly! Could he be ready for his best race yet? W-P-S FINISH!

April 23, 2009 at 7:46 pm
(3) Bill Floyd says:

Cindy, didn’t mean to mean I didn’t enjoy your analysis. It’s just that I’ve been at this awhile too, and can get rather opinionated!! Nashua was my first Derby Pick and still the disappointment of a lifetime. He was Triple Crown Quality!!! My other big disappointment was Easy Goer, a top ten all-time race horse, in my book. I’ve picked more than my share of winners – -none of whom I am more proud than Strike the Gold!! Quality Road has his kick!!

April 24, 2009 at 4:55 pm
(4) Douglas Rutherford says:

Thanks Cindy for your reply back. I will keep your pick in mind, though I have been burnt time and time again with these West Coast Superstars running poorly in the Derby. Its gotta end sometime! I am still waiting for your reply back to me reguarding SQUARE EDDIE. I really believe in this Canadian bred 3 yr old. And I see alot of Northern Dancer and Sunny Halo in him. Do you see any chance of him finishing in the Trifecta W-P-S ! I am very head strong about him, and I think that he could be 25-1 come post time……..

April 24, 2009 at 5:07 pm
(5) dam the man says:

If you bet square eddie you better change your name to that,as he will not be the one to get the roses

April 24, 2009 at 7:49 pm
(6) Douglas Rutherford says:

Square Eddie is the Dark Horse from this Derby. This 3 yr old should be getting more attention than what is being shown. After-all, last year, almost every analysis was all over this 2 yr old talking the talk about this years Derby with Square Eddie. Now that he had vanished due to injury, now back into the picture: hummmmmmmm , might not take the roses, a place or show would be just fine.

April 27, 2009 at 12:40 pm
(7) dantheman says:

Now that q-road is out look out for the closers,as he was the one to beat,pion of the nile i think will do better than i-w-r or papa,if he excells on the dirt

April 27, 2009 at 4:37 pm
(8) Douglas Rutherford says:

Well Cindy, now that QUALITY ROAD is out of the Derby this has got to make your top pick look even brighter to your eyes. I was really hoping that Q R would run because I was wanting to see a very fast-hot-pace up front. Its really unclear what kind of fractions will be set now. I am really liking what im still seeing in SQUARE EDDIE at Churchill. Sundays workout was only 50 in change, but finished strong and galloped out an extra 2 miles around the track. Has not missed a beat, and eating well. All signs say go. As of right now ( DESERT PARTY-REGAL RANSOM-I WANT REVENGE-CHOCOLATE CANDY-SQUARE EDDIE ) would have to be my top five to box for a EX. and TRI. ! I do really like your top pick Cindy, but I just have this jinx thing about West Coast horses such like CHOCOLATE CANDY. I do really like C C to defeat P O T N in the derby between the West Coast runners. DO NOT LEAVE OUT ( SQUARE EDDIE ) in your SUPERFECTA PICK Cindy. I have noticed thru the last 7 years, my top pick has hit the SUPERFECTA in all 7, but only winning 2 of them. And I hope SQUARE EDDIE keeps my string alive. Thanks for your top pick over the last 7 years. It has really helped my winnings in EX. TRI. SUP.. Last year with you liking BIG BROWN, and I was sold on the filly EIGHT BELLS……… we had a one two punch! And a great pay-off.

April 28, 2009 at 4:03 pm
(9) Douglas Rutherford says:

Wowwwww Cindy, how many great Derby Prospects are we going to loss before post-time! I am just heart broken hearing the news this morning about SQUARE EDDIE Shin problem again after looking so good since the COOLMORE LEXINGTON STAKES. Now I need to find a replacement to complete my five horse box, and having to find a new main pick which afew come to mind from my list in last visit. Cindy, just view the loss thus far – QUALITY ROAD – VINEYARD HAVEN – MIDSHIPMAN – OLD FASHIONED – SQUARE EDDIE – STARDOM BOUND – BEETHOVEN – MAFAAZ – THE PAMPLEMOUSSE …… just these alone would make a huge TRIPLE CROWN race. Just goes to show, how fast situations can change in horse racing, wishing all a healthy lifestyle. I will wait till post drawing before I find a replacement. This years Derby is really starting to play its-self out with the two late scratches. Only 3 horses left from last years BC JUV. and thats PIONEER OF THE NILE – WEST SIDE BERNIE – MINE THAT BIRD … and only one contender from a 2 yr old running at 1 1/8 and thats HOLD ME BACK , and only two contenders working out with a BULLET WORK over the CHURCHILL DIRT and thats FRIESAN FIRE and REGAL RANSON , and to note only one contender with last two races back to back with 100 SPEED RATE and thats I WANT REVENGE……………. This has been the Derby Winning trend for years, as it almost always repeats its-self out. So we do feel 80% sure that the 135th Derby winner will come from one of these contenders , like them or not. Just which one! Cindy, hope to hear back from you by like Thursday. I will get over the scratch of SQUARE EDDIE by then , and I will be ready for my main key horse so I can hook it up with yours for maybe another fantastic Derby casher.

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