My annual analysis of the top contenders to try and select a winner by matching each to the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner using many of the more popular angles and statistical trends. As you might expect, Wood and Gotham winner I Want Revenge (right) tops the list, but you may be surprised at how low some of the other favored horses are ranked.
Analyzing the Top 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders
By Cindy Pierson Dulay, About.com GuideApril 22, 2009
My annual analysis of the top contenders to try and select a winner by matching each to the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner using many of the more popular angles and statistical trends. As you might expect, Wood and Gotham winner I Want Revenge (right) tops the list, but you may be surprised at how low some of the other favored horses are ranked.Explore Horse Racing
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Comments
I just had a long message that was wiped out by your system, so, I’ll say it brief this time. Quality Road is grossly underrated in your anal. I Want Revenge is overrated 3-4 spots. The three most likely $$ horses are Q Rd, Gen Qtrs & Friesan Fire.
Cindy, its a pleasure to read your Analyzing The Top 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders Profile again, as it is each and every year. I see that this year, you have Chocolate Candy – a long shot – right up there in your top four picks for the WIN! Its nice to see facts for the Derby. I like making a Triple Crown wager each year on afew horses. I only use a horse that has already had a start at Belmont, which leaves me with FRIESAN FIRE and MUSKET MAN . Even though horses that have had a start over the Belmont track DO NOT show much of a winning record at Churchill, but in order to WIN at Belmont, you best have a start over the track if you want to win. So, with this in mind, which of the two do you feel fits the DERBY best? I will play both to WIN the Triple Crown, even though they dont seem to hold a very high Derby profile. I personaly feel that there could be three diffrent WINNERS in the Triple Crown. Which is another good wager for the Triple Crown . Where do you believe SQUARE EDDIE will finish in the Derby…honestly! Could he be ready for his best race yet? W-P-S FINISH!
Cindy, didn’t mean to mean I didn’t enjoy your analysis. It’s just that I’ve been at this awhile too, and can get rather opinionated!! Nashua was my first Derby Pick and still the disappointment of a lifetime. He was Triple Crown Quality!!! My other big disappointment was Easy Goer, a top ten all-time race horse, in my book. I’ve picked more than my share of winners – -none of whom I am more proud than Strike the Gold!! Quality Road has his kick!!
Thanks Cindy for your reply back. I will keep your pick in mind, though I have been burnt time and time again with these West Coast Superstars running poorly in the Derby. Its gotta end sometime! I am still waiting for your reply back to me reguarding SQUARE EDDIE. I really believe in this Canadian bred 3 yr old. And I see alot of Northern Dancer and Sunny Halo in him. Do you see any chance of him finishing in the Trifecta W-P-S ! I am very head strong about him, and I think that he could be 25-1 come post time……..
If you bet square eddie you better change your name to that,as he will not be the one to get the roses
Square Eddie is the Dark Horse from this Derby. This 3 yr old should be getting more attention than what is being shown. After-all, last year, almost every analysis was all over this 2 yr old talking the talk about this years Derby with Square Eddie. Now that he had vanished due to injury, now back into the picture: hummmmmmmm , might not take the roses, a place or show would be just fine.
Now that q-road is out look out for the closers,as he was the one to beat,pion of the nile i think will do better than i-w-r or papa,if he excells on the dirt
Well Cindy, now that QUALITY ROAD is out of the Derby this has got to make your top pick look even brighter to your eyes. I was really hoping that Q R would run because I was wanting to see a very fast-hot-pace up front. Its really unclear what kind of fractions will be set now. I am really liking what im still seeing in SQUARE EDDIE at Churchill. Sundays workout was only 50 in change, but finished strong and galloped out an extra 2 miles around the track. Has not missed a beat, and eating well. All signs say go. As of right now ( DESERT PARTY-REGAL RANSOM-I WANT REVENGE-CHOCOLATE CANDY-SQUARE EDDIE ) would have to be my top five to box for a EX. and TRI. ! I do really like your top pick Cindy, but I just have this jinx thing about West Coast horses such like CHOCOLATE CANDY. I do really like C C to defeat P O T N in the derby between the West Coast runners. DO NOT LEAVE OUT ( SQUARE EDDIE ) in your SUPERFECTA PICK Cindy. I have noticed thru the last 7 years, my top pick has hit the SUPERFECTA in all 7, but only winning 2 of them. And I hope SQUARE EDDIE keeps my string alive. Thanks for your top pick over the last 7 years. It has really helped my winnings in EX. TRI. SUP.. Last year with you liking BIG BROWN, and I was sold on the filly EIGHT BELLS……… we had a one two punch! And a great pay-off.
Wowwwww Cindy, how many great Derby Prospects are we going to loss before post-time! I am just heart broken hearing the news this morning about SQUARE EDDIE Shin problem again after looking so good since the COOLMORE LEXINGTON STAKES. Now I need to find a replacement to complete my five horse box, and having to find a new main pick which afew come to mind from my list in last visit. Cindy, just view the loss thus far – QUALITY ROAD – VINEYARD HAVEN – MIDSHIPMAN – OLD FASHIONED – SQUARE EDDIE – STARDOM BOUND – BEETHOVEN – MAFAAZ – THE PAMPLEMOUSSE …… just these alone would make a huge TRIPLE CROWN race. Just goes to show, how fast situations can change in horse racing, wishing all a healthy lifestyle. I will wait till post drawing before I find a replacement. This years Derby is really starting to play its-self out with the two late scratches. Only 3 horses left from last years BC JUV. and thats PIONEER OF THE NILE – WEST SIDE BERNIE – MINE THAT BIRD … and only one contender from a 2 yr old running at 1 1/8 and thats HOLD ME BACK , and only two contenders working out with a BULLET WORK over the CHURCHILL DIRT and thats FRIESAN FIRE and REGAL RANSON , and to note only one contender with last two races back to back with 100 SPEED RATE and thats I WANT REVENGE……………. This has been the Derby Winning trend for years, as it almost always repeats its-self out. So we do feel 80% sure that the 135th Derby winner will come from one of these contenders , like them or not. Just which one! Cindy, hope to hear back from you by like Thursday. I will get over the scratch of SQUARE EDDIE by then , and I will be ready for my main key horse so I can hook it up with yours for maybe another fantastic Derby casher.